Adam Blencowe: irreverent handicapper whose scores aren’t beside the point | HK Racing newsfragment

Concentrate to Adam Blencowe on any of Racing and Sports activities’ podcasts, and it takes best a few mins to understand the Australian analyst doesn’t rush himself severely, however he’s all industry relating to assessing the performances of gallopers.

With tiny greater than a past to the Longines Hong Kong Global Races (HKIR) at Sha Tin, this past’s Tongue Join Off finds the skilled perspectives of Blencowe, the irreverent handicapper whose scores are the rest however beside the point, in this yr’s 4 mega-money HKIR contests and the HKIR non-runner who’s his favorite horse of all era.

What used to be your creation to racing?

My vintage guy used to be a bookmaker, in order that’s how I were given into racing. I old to check racing mode on Racing and Sports activities’ web site presen I used to be operating past due at night time making a bet on Ecu football video games as a sports activities bookie. That’s once I were given into Ecu racing – and Legislation & Form – since you’ve were given to do one thing to stick wide awake at 3am. My dad identified to me Canberra used to be house to Racing and Sports activities, and perhaps it may be able to deal me some paintings all through sunlight hours. So I emailed Gary Crispe, and he gave me a task marking up vintage Sportsmans with margins and alternative feedback. Gary taught me learn how to handicap horses, and the remains, as they are saying, is historical past. That used to be 17 years in the past.

Who’s your favorite horse of all era?

Takeover Goal. He’s the pony I favored past simply making a bet. There used to be the native connection – I’m from Canberra, and he used to be from Queanbeyan – as neatly. I old to progress to trackwork. I bear in mind him ripping round Queanbeyan at one million miles an past, and his lecturer, Joe Janiak, didn’t realise they’d cored the route. There have been fat holes within the observe, and there used to be Takeover Goal, some of the international’s superb sprinters, dicing with dying. He got here again, walked in and crowned all of it off with an early morning bourbon and coke. Now that’s a racehorse. There are enough quantity of top class thoroughbreds I’ve favored, however none of them had been as cool as Takeover Goal used to be.

How do you assess the Workforce One Hong Kong Dash (1,200m)?

In principle, Highfield Princess brings top-flight Ecu dash mode, however I subsidized Blue Level – a champion on that continent – to win the 2018 Workforce One Chairman’s Dash Prize (1,200m), and so they’re nonetheless in search of him on the Sha Tin nook. Her profile is odd in that she went from being a Indexed mare at the start of her five-year-old season to a Workforce One mare on the stop of it. She ran to her top score in 4 of her 5 runs all through her 2022 crimson region, however this yr, she’s best run to it as soon as in seven begins. For her to show round her mode in Hong Kong this presen turns out positive.

With Fortunate Sweynesse this time period, there were the weights he has carried and the shapes of the races he has contested. Sluggish paces on fast garden form it dehydrated paintings to position margins in your warring parties. On Racing and Sports activities’ podcasts, I importance the analogy of taking part in golfing off the dull tees or taking part in little golfing. He desires to play games off the dull tees in a high-pressure race as a result of that will allow him to position some photographs between him and the chasing gather. He’s working OK. If he runs neatly, they’re lifeless.

What’s your rush at the Workforce One Hong Kong Mile?

Blonde Sixty being first up isn’t a priority as a result of he’s been at his superb or near plenty to it in his year pristine runs. California Spangle used to be atrocious the alternative date with out an oblivion. On scores, the select of the world horses is Tribalist, nevertheless it’s a fully other ballgame for him in Hong Kong. Blonde Sixty wins mile races in about 93 seconds. Tribalist normally wins mile races in about 100 seconds. Latter get started, he gained one in 116 seconds. Namur comes into the development off back-to-back scores that will typically earn a Hong Kong Mile putting. She’s in career-best nick, and it’s plausible she may just run any other private superb, so she’s more than likely the largest risk to the champ.

How do you notice the Workforce One Hong Kong Cup (2,000m)?

That is the most efficient race. That is superior. There wouldn’t be a lot between Romantic Warrior, Diagnosis and Luxembourg. The Cox Plate attracted a just right grassland, nevertheless it used to be a grassland stuffed with just right milers. No longer best is the Hong Kong Cup more potent in phrases of high-end intensity, its top-end intensity is more potent over 2,000m. Romantic Warrior confronted milers stretching out to two,000m within the Cox Plate. The Hong Kong Cup represents a harder project for him.

Diagnosis will have to have nervous Romantic Warrior in April’s Workforce One QEII Cup (2,000m), however Zac Purton picked up what Racing and Sports activities’ podcasts name an STI – Slaughtered to Instruction – that afternoon and left his mount with excess to do past due within the piece. Diagnosis went again to Japan, gained the Sapporo Kinen (2,000m), which may well be the most powerful Workforce Two race on the earth, and next ran his guts out at the back of the arena’s highest-rated galloper, Equinox, within the Workforce One Tenno Sho Autumn (2,000m). He’s each bit as gifted as Romantic Warrior is.

Aidan O’Brien hasn’t gained a Hong Kong Cup. Then again, excluding Magical, he hasn’t taken a horse with a score the rest such as just right as that of Luxembourg’s to it. He’s run within the mid-120s a couple of occasions. He’s crushed Onesto and Bay Bridge to win Workforce Ones. He ran as much as his top score at the back of Auguste Rodin ultimate era out. He’s taking part in clear of house on the stop of the yr, and presen it’s important to permit for that, you’re more likely to get the precise odds to wager.

Nicole Purton: Best Money can inform Zac he’s had a garbage night time

In the end, what’s your view at the Workforce One Hong Kong Vase (2,400m)?

Lebensstil is a quick horse, and he’s speedy plenty to win the Hong Kong Vase for Japan. He’s best raced past 1,800m as soon as in his six begins, however he beat the pony who used to be odds on within the Jap Derby, Sol Oriens, in that Workforce Two tournament over 2,200m, working what I name era over era – speedy splits over the zenith of a quick era. He will have to get 2,400m, and the detail of the Hong Kong Vase grassland falls away relatively temporarily upcoming him. Heat Middle is OK, however she’s now not a famous person. Shahryar is a great horse with the race’s superb top score, however he’s low variance at the present time. Shahryar units the usual required to win the Hong Kong Vase, however Lebensstil most probably runs one thing like that benchmark quantity or an excellent higher one. He’s the most efficient ante-post wager within the HKIR options.


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